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Zambia - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
Executive summary Zambia's GDP growth has remained almost unaffected by the global economic crisis. After briefly dipping to 4.5% in 2009 it is expected to return to the level of between 5% and 6% p.a. from 2010 which it has enjoyed consistently over the past six years. The country's telecommunications market is dominated by mobile network operator Zain (formerly Celtel) which has a market share of more than 70%. However, the fastest subscriber growth is currently seen by the runner-up, MTN (formerly Telecel) from South Africa. The average revenue per user on the other hand has dropped sharply in 2009 after it had already reversed its long-term downtrend in 2008. The third competitor in the mobile market is Cell Z, the mobile division of the national telco, Zamtel. Zamtel has been performing poorly in the mobile as well as the fixed-line sector, despite monopoly rights in the latter, including the international gateway. This has also limited growth in the Internet and broadband sector, with some of the highest prices for international bandwidth on the continent. The monopoly on the international gateway and restrictions on VoIP Internet telephony are set to fall under the new ICT Act, which will make international calls and borderless international roaming much more attractive. The Act also established a new unified licensing regime which will enable more competition in all market sectors from existing and new players. With penetration rates in all sectors still below regional averages, the growth prospects are excellent. Since 2009 mobile handsets are being manufactured in Zambia for the domestic market as well as export. A majority stake in Zamtel was sold to LAP Green of Libya in mid-2010. One of its key assets is a national fibre network that is currently being rolled out, including connections to neighbouring countries which will provide transit links to international submarine fibre optic cables off the African east and west coasts. However, alternative domestic fibre is already being rolled out by three other companies, and one of them has recently completed the country's first ever connection to an international submarine fibre optic cable, SAT-3/WASC. Alternative international fibre links will go live in 2010 and 2011, reducing the dependency on a single provider, which will, first and foremost, benefit the broadband sector with cheaper international bandwidth. Zamtel's expensive ADSL service is still dominating this sector, albeit at a very low level. Competition exists from several ISPs which have rolled out WiMAX wireless broadband networks. Mobile data services using GPRS and EDGE are available but have remained expensive under the current conditions. Third generation technology rollouts are in progress, including 3.5G HSPA, but the licensing has been delayed. Market highlights: Market analysis 2010; 2010 estimates for mobile, fixed-line and Internet market; Forecasts for mobile, fixed-line and Internet market to end-2011; Profiles of major players in all market sectors; Zamtel has been privatised; Liberalisation of VoIP and international gateways under new ICT Act; New converged licensing regime to enable more competition in all market sectors; Additional cross-border and international submarine fibre links in 2010; Competitive national fibre backbone rollouts; Broadband and mobile data pricing trends; Mobile ARPU 2005-2009, Zain vs MTN.Estimated market penetration rates in Zambia's telecoms sector - end 2010 MarketPenetration rate Mobile43% Fixed Internet8% (Source: BuddeComm based on various sources) This annual report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Zambia's telecommunications market. Subjects covered include: Key statistics; Market and industry overviews; The impact of the global economic crisis; Regulatory environment and structural reform; Major players (fixed, mobile and broadband); Infrastructure development; Mobile voice and data markets; Average Revenue per User; Internet and broadband development and pricing; Convergence (voice/data, fixed/wireless/mobile).For those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecommunications sector in Zambia, this report is essential reading and gives further information on: The impact of access to international submarine fibre for a landlocked country; Government policies affecting the telecoms industry; Market liberalisation and regulatory issues; The impact of the global economic crisis; Telecoms operators - privatisation, IPOs, acquisitions, new licences; Internet and broadband development, including 3G mobile; Broadband and mobile data services and pricing trends; Mobile Average Revenue per User.
Last Update: 16 Jun 2010 Number of Pages: 31

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